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July 25, 2005

Kaine pulls ahead of Kilgore

I should be worried,right? That 10% lead has just evaporated, likely a cause from a "weak" (as Waldo might put it) debate? It's all over, isn't it?

Absolutely not.

Anyone who has been here before knows that I am a full skeptic of polls, as they can be inherantly (even if unintentionally) biased. When analyzing an election, I prefer to look at the campaign; while subjective, the better campaign (even if it is the inferior candidate) almost always wins. Well, wouldn't many on Kaine's side argue that Kilgore has not run a good campaign? Likely, but they will neglect to mention that Kaine has run a very poor campaign. In particular, Kaine is defensive of his positions. Of course, if he were a little more consistent in his viewpoints, he wouldn't need to be.

One could also notice a similar trend from last year, though I'm not going to put too much faith in such a parallel myself.

The left side of the blogosphere is postiviely giddy over this one poll; while this excitement could be beneficial to the Kaine campaign, it could also lead to complacency. If Kaine is indeed ahead at the moment, I applaud him; obviously, he is doing better than I thought and deserves to be in the lead. For the moment. But in the end, only one thing is important.

The only poll that matters is the election (if you are scoffing now, remember November 2nd, 2004).

Hat tip to John Behan for his many, many links.