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October 23, 2006

New Mason-Dixon Poll

If this were NLS, you could expect five wigs flipped (or I guess it is a 5 Siren Alert now). Senator Allen has a 47-43 lead over James Webb in a poll of 625 likely registered registered-likely(?) voters (yeah, I am as confused as y'all too). Allen is seen favorably by 42% of voters and unfavorably by 39% of voters; Webb is at 34% and 28% respectively. This is good news for Senator Allen, as it suggests that his base and other voters are excited to vote for him. This means that James Webb needs to rely on those who are angry about Senator Allen over those who are actually in support of him, as there does not appear to be a perfect overlap of those unhappy with Senator Allen and happy with James Webb. Also, a minimum of 19% of voters are keen on either candidate. This is the group James Webb needed to reach and he has failed at doing so.

Note, this is far from the end. This poll does not decide who will win, and could even be inaccurate (though it runs very consistent with the many polls that have suggested anything from a tie to a small lead for Senator Allen). The Allen campaign has to keep fighting from here on out, and the Webb campaign will no doubt try to dish out some last minute dirt to eat away at any lead Senator Allen may have. Still, I would love to see how Raising Kaine can spin this into something positive for James Webb.