And the faulty polls roll on...
Recently, this has happened again. A new poll seems to suggest that Hillary Clinton could win the 2008 presidential election. Hmm, this deserves further research.
It becomes obvious very quickly. The question asks how likely a voter would be to vote for Hillary, but there is no mention of any competition. While the 29% who would be very likely to vote for Hillary is probably fairly certain (probably a likely group to vote for almost any other Democratic candidate), there is a group of 24% who are "somewhat likely" to vote for her. So, Hillary would win based on these numbers; Susan Page assumes that the 24% is as good as the 29% in voting for Senator Clinton? Until another candidate is added to the equation, these numbers are meaningless.
I also question the stat that 1/3 of self-described conservatives would vote for Clinton. I wish I could say that I have an answer for this one, but all I have is a hypothesis; most conservatives refused to participate in the poll, meaning a skew from the more "moderate" conservatives. For now, I'm just going to call it a hunch that that number is faulty.
This seems to be a sort of rallying call to the Democrats, in the hopes of running Clinton in 3 years. But a few things should be remembered. Bad polls never change anything (just ask John Kerry the day after Election Day). A lot can happen in that period of time. And while I don't like negative politics, Hillary Clinton has made herself an easy target getting involved in many shady situations. She may have support now, but she is known as a very partisan candidate. The Democrats need to learn from prior elections and pick a more moderate candidate, perhaps Joseph Liberman or Mark Warner, if they want a chance at taking back the Oval Office in '08.