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October 04, 2006

New polls suggesting the shakedown of the upcoming election?

Vivian has an excellent analysis of the race as it stands right now and reflects my thoughts on how this race will be decided; much like last year it will come to turnout. However, this time around, as she notes
Allen continues to appeal to his base, despite his recent troubles. With the added incentive of the marriage amendment, I believe his base will turn out. Allen just needs to stay out of trouble.
She focuses on the black vote, but indeed, overall, Webb needs Democrats to come out and vote for him. I believe the polls are suggesting that Allen has not lost votes, but instead that Webb is starting to pick up some name recognition and it is benefitting him; however, will it be enough? My gut says no, as Allen is still the incumbent, still holds a generally favorable view from Virginians, and has the experience that James Webb lacks. If the election were held today, I would guess that Senator Allen would win 53-47. But with the current trends, I could believe see the race swing further and Senator Allen taking the race by 10. It all will depend on the turnout of Democrats.

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