A few observations about Northern Virginia

1. I was driving on Fairfax County Parkway and other roads the last couple days and I noticed a number of political signs placed in the medians. There were a few (though not an overwhelming number) George Allen signs, but as far as I could see, only one Webb sign in the grass next to an off-ramp.

2. Not only that, but there were a few cars with bumper stickers. Again, there were a few bumper stickers for Allen. Curiously, people still have Kerry/Edwards '04 stickers on their cars, as well as a few that are still showing support for Tim Kaine. Surprisingly, very few of these cars or others had James Webb bumper stickers, and less than those for Senator Allen.

3. Other candidates and referenda on the ballot also have some attention in this area. I saw a couple of signs and stickers supporting the marriage amendment, and none opposing it. There also appeared to be many people supporting Frank Wolf, even more signs for him than the junior senator, and the same held true to a greater extent for Tom Davis.

What does this all say?

Interestingly, it appears that few people are getting excited about Senator Allen. However, even fewer appear keen on Democrats in general in an area that is supposed to be the Democrats' stronghold in Virginia. Certainly, this is less reliable than a poll, particularly as it only covers a couple major roads in Northern Virginia, but it still appears quite telling. Republicans in the area are geared up to vote for their congressmen and the amendment, and will likely bring in Senator Allen on their coattails, rather than vice-versa. However, Democrats may not be as excited right now in this area, and let's face it, if James Webb does not carry Northern Virginia by a significant margin (and with a significant turnout), he will lose; I am sure even the kiddies over at Raising Kaine will concede that point.

Again, this is not something to rely on, but if the trend that appears is true, these last 27 days before the election are simply going to delay the inevitable; whether by a large margin or small, George Allen will be awarded another six years in the Senate.

New polls suggesting the shakedown of the upcoming election?

Vivian has an excellent analysis of the race as it stands right now and reflects my thoughts on how this race will be decided; much like last year it will come to turnout. However, this time around, as she notes

Allen continues to appeal to his base, despite his recent troubles. With the added incentive of the marriage amendment, I believe his base will turn out. Allen just needs to stay out of trouble.

She focuses on the black vote, but indeed, overall, Webb needs Democrats to come out and vote for him. I believe the polls are suggesting that Allen has not lost votes, but instead that Webb is starting to pick up some name recognition and it is benefitting him; however, will it be enough? My gut says no, as Allen is still the incumbent, still holds a generally favorable view from Virginians, and has the experience that James Webb lacks. If the election were held today, I would guess that Senator Allen would win 53-47. But with the current trends, I could believe see the race swing further and Senator Allen taking the race by 10. It all will depend on the turnout of Democrats.